{
  "current_stage": "stage_6",
  "problem_attempt": 1,
  "idea_round": 1,
  "theory_attempt": 1,
  "theory_version": 11,
  "referee_round": 3,
  "pivot_round": 0,
  "fix_empirics_rounds": 0,
  "bib_verify_round": 0,
  "pivot_resolved": null,
  "pivot_history": [],
  "status": "running",
  "seeded": true,
  "scores": {
    "gate_0_viability": 80,
    "v6_structured": 66,
    "v6_freeform": 58,
    "v7_structured": 59,
    "v7_freeform": 60,
    "v10_structured": 55.7,
    "v10_freeform": 62,
    "v11_structured": 59.2,
    "v11_freeform": 63
  },
  "stage3a_theory_version": 10,
  "stage1_candidates": [
    {
      "round": 1,
      "rank": 1,
      "sketch_name": "fed-swap-architecture-mechanism-design",
      "novelty": "OPEN",
      "prototype": "TRACTABLE",
      "surprise": null,
      "eliminated": false,
      "winner": true
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T00:00:00Z",
      "event": "pipeline start (seeded mode) \u2014 Fed swap-line architecture"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T00:00:01Z",
      "event": "data inventory complete (theory paper, no proprietary data needed)"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T00:00:02Z",
      "event": "literature-scout launched (background) for broad map"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T00:15:00Z",
      "event": "broad literature map complete \u2014 closest competitors: Bahaj-Reis 2022 RES, Kekre-Lenel 2024 AER, Bahaj-Reis Jumpstarting, Mukhin 2022"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T00:15:30Z",
      "event": "gap_selection + problem_statement + stage1 seeded artifacts written"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T00:40:00Z",
      "event": "gap-scout (third attempt) succeeded \u2014 verdict OPEN; adjacent finds: Bengui-Bianchi 2019 IER, Bocola-Lorenzoni 2020 AER, Farhi-Tirole 2024 ReStud, Choi-Kirpalani-Perez 2022 NBER, Gopinath-Stein 2021 QJE"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T00:42:00Z",
      "event": "Gate 0 viability scored 80/100 \u2014 problem is well-posed, unfilled, tractable, policy-relevant"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T00:42:30Z",
      "event": "seeded-mode: skipping Gates 1b/1c (seed already novelty-OPEN and prototype-TRACTABLE from seed-triage); advancing directly to Stage 2"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T09:00:58Z",
      "event": "stage 2 \u2014 theory draft v1 written (propositions 1-3 with proofs, N1-N5 open items flagged by author)"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T09:07:22Z",
      "event": "math audit v1 \u2014 FAIL (6 critical + 4 minor; Prop 1 boxed formula wrong, Prop 2 premium missing curvature term, Prop 3(c) iff wrong, uniqueness hand-waved)"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T09:13:38Z",
      "event": "theory draft v2 written \u2014 fixed 6 critical audit errors; added second threshold phi^ann for announcement premium (four-region policy map)"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T09:20:40Z",
      "event": "math audit v2 \u2014 FAIL (2 critical + 3 minor; 5/6 v1 errors fixed but Prop 2 now spurious threshold; \u00a71.3 reconciliation false)"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T09:27:23Z",
      "event": "theory draft v3 \u2014 Prop 2 corrected to unambiguously positive premium; \u00a71.3 reconciliation rewritten; two-region policy map"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T09:33:21Z",
      "event": "math audit v3 \u2014 PASS (0 critical, 2 minor non-blocking)"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T09:36:01Z",
      "event": "freeform audit v3 \u2014 FAIL (3 critical: mixed specs in Prop 1, pi-inconsistency in invoicing drift, Prop 3(a) iff fails at calibration; 5 moderate)"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T09:44:13Z",
      "event": "theory draft v4 \u2014 unified spec (b), consistent \u03c0, Prop 3 iff removed (Option A: PBOC scarcity premium \u03be); Prop 2 now \u03c6-dependent linear premium; FIMA \u03b7(h) MH; continuous E interpreted as demand-routing fraction"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T09:53:44Z",
      "event": "math audit v4 \u2014 FAIL (2 critical: Prop 2 omitted term, Prop 3 binding regime fails at calibration; 7/10 v3\u2192v4 fixes landed)"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T10:12:12Z",
      "event": "theory draft v5 \u2014 \u03c6_0.5 redefined from FIMA baseline; binding regime enforced with min-form; \u00a75 reparameterized (\u03c1=0.001, \u03c3=10); A,B recomputed under binding"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T10:22:01Z",
      "event": "math audit v5 \u2014 PASS (0 critical, 1 moderate boundary regime, 1 minor)"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T10:25:22Z",
      "event": "freeform audit v5 \u2014 FAIL (2 critical: PBOC economically negligible due to calibration choice, \u03a0^ann is 10^-4 of C; 5 moderate structural)"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T10:28:25Z",
      "event": "branch-manager v5: RESTRUCTURE-1 \u2014 drop Prop 2 as headline (demote to remark); reframe Prop 3 as regime characterization"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T10:34:41Z",
      "event": "theory draft v6 \u2014 RESTRUCTURE: two headline theorems (Prop 1 threshold + reframed Cournot regime characterization); former Prop 2 demoted to remark; E=1 corner fix applied"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T10:40:06Z",
      "event": "math audit v6 \u2014 PASS (0 critical, 3 minor cosmetic)"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T10:42:44Z",
      "event": "freeform audit v6 \u2014 PASS. Gate 2 cleared. Advance to Gate 3 novelty check."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T10:49:50Z",
      "event": "Gate 3 novelty check v6 \u2014 NOVEL. Both theorems + joint framework confirmed new. Advance to Stage 3a."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T11:04:27Z",
      "event": "Stage 3a \u2014 HOLDS. Theorem 1 numerics verify to 1e-15; all 5 comparative statics signs correct; binding cushion 4x at baseline; strategic ratio 1.5e-3 (second-order regime); new finding: interior Cournot FOC infeasible at baseline (\u03ba<0.0194 required), consistent with Theorem 2 regime framing."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T11:16:01Z",
      "event": "Stage 3 implications \u2014 5 NOVEL implications derived (Impl 3 also PUZZLE-CANDIDATE: Argentina 2023 Fed non-response). Advance to Stage 4 self-attack."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T11:20:01Z",
      "event": "Stage 4 self-attack \u2014 6 sev 7-9 concerns (framing-content gap on Theorem 2; design-paper overclaim); recommendation: narrow to Theorem 1 headline"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T11:24:40Z",
      "event": "Gate 4 scorers \u2014 structured 66 REVISE; freeform 58 needs restructuring. Both recommend demoting Theorem 2 to Proposition, narrowing paper."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T11:27:22Z",
      "event": "Gate 4 decision: REVISE (structured scorer 66, freeform 58). Branch-manager recommends CONTINUE with 4 FIX items from triage + tier reset to JFE/RFS. Returning to Stage 2 for v7."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T11:33:33Z",
      "event": "theory draft v7 \u2014 Theorem 2 demoted to Proposition 1 (regime characterization); title narrowed to instrument-choice; partial-identification added; \u03c8 unified under H1. Target tier: JFE/RFS."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T11:40:29Z",
      "event": "math audit v7 \u2014 PASS (0 critical, 6 cosmetic; 1 typo in Corollary 1.2)"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T11:42:57Z",
      "event": "freeform audit v7 \u2014 PASS. Gate 2 clean. Theory content unchanged from v6 (relabel only), so Stage 3a and Stage 3 implications remain valid. Proceeding to Gate 4 rescore."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T11:53:07Z",
      "event": "Gate 4 round 2 \u2014 structured 59 (delta -7) + freeform 60 (delta +2). Honest narrowing exposed quantitative thinness. Extension playbook triggered per plateau rule."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T11:56:30Z",
      "event": "Gate 4 round 2 decision: REVISE with extension playbook \u2014 N-country heterogeneous-counterparty extension per branch-manager. Target: JFE/RFS."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T12:03:45Z",
      "event": "theory draft v8 \u2014 N-country extension: Theorem 2 (cross-sectional partition) + Theorem 3 (correlated stress adjustment); identification \u00a76 with observable RHS; illustrative 14-country calibration."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T12:14:06Z",
      "event": "math audit v8 \u2014 FAIL (2 critical: Theorem 3 coefficient misallocation, \u00a75.2 all 14 calibration rows wrong; 1 moderate ranking-invariance; 2 minor)"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T15:11:57Z",
      "event": "theory draft v9 \u2014 5 targeted patches to v8: Theorem 3 Taylor corrected, \u00a75 recast as 4-archetype table, ranking-invariance narrowed, O(R\u00b2) weakened, \u03c9_i range added"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T15:19:56Z",
      "event": "math audit v9 \u2014 FAIL (2 critical: Theorem 3 coefficient still misallocated, ranking invariance claim wrong; 1 minor dominance range). Error count decreasing."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T15:27:04Z",
      "event": "theory draft v10 \u2014 3 surgical fixes: Theorem 3 coeff reallocation, drop invariance claim + add \u00a75.6 sensitivity, honest dominance range"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T15:33:02Z",
      "event": "math audit v10 \u2014 PASS (rounding-level discrepancies only)"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T15:35:45Z",
      "event": "freeform audit v10 \u2014 PASS. Gate 2 cleared on v10 (N-country extension). Proceeding to Gate 3 re-novelty."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T15:41:55Z",
      "event": "Gate 3 re-novelty v10 \u2014 NOVEL. Bahaj-Fuchs-Reis 2024 descriptive only, not preemption. Advance to Stage 3a re-exploration."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T15:46:00Z",
      "event": "stage3a re-exploration on v10: verifies Theorem 2 archetypes, separability, Theorem 3 correlated-stress sign, and (kappa,beta) sensitivity. HOLDS with flagged Taylor-vs-exact magnitude discrepancy in A1 (draft: -9pp Taylor; exact: -6.4pp). stage3a_theory_version=10."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T15:46:26Z",
      "event": "Stage 3a exploration v10 \u2014 HOLDS. All archetype thresholds, separability, and Theorem 3 sign verified. Taylor approximation overshoots exact by ~35% at \u03c7=1 but sign unchanged."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T15:47:04Z",
      "event": "Stage 3 implications updated \u2014 added Impl 6 (cross-sectional partition) and Impl 7 (correlated-stress amplification); both NOVEL. Advancing to Stage 4 rescore on v10."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T15:54:59Z",
      "event": "Gate 4 round 3 \u2014 structured 55.7 (delta -3.3) + freeform 62 (delta +2). Plateau signal (2 consecutive delta<3 on structured). Both scorers converge on restructure: elevate Theorem 3, demote Theorem 2, add FIMA archetype, microfound \u03c7, fix \u00a76.2."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T16:00:35Z",
      "event": "Gate 4 round 3 decision \u2014 REVISE once more with restructure (Alt 1). Target tier dropped honestly to RF/JFQA/MS. v11 must elevate Theorem 3, demote Theorem 2, add FIMA archetype, fix \u00a76.2. Fallback: if v11 score \u226458, advance to Stage 5 directly."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T16:07:27Z",
      "event": "theory draft v11 \u2014 restructured: Theorem 2 (correlated-stress slope) elevated to co-headline; Proposition 1 (cross-sectional partition) demoted; A5 FIMA-side archetype added; \u00a76.2 ranking-test; \u00a75.4 exact values"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T16:13:05Z",
      "event": "math audit v11 \u2014 PASS (3 minor non-blocking, no critical)"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T16:15:05Z",
      "event": "freeform audit v11 \u2014 PASS. Restructure landed; A5 FIMA archetype added. Gate 2 clean. Proceeding to Gate 4 rescore."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T16:17:50Z",
      "event": "Gate 4 round 4 \u2014 v11 structured 59.2 (delta +3.5), freeform 63. ADVANCE to Stage 5 (paper writing). Target tier RF/JFQA/MS honest."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T16:28:37Z",
      "event": "Stage 5 paper writing complete \u2014 main.pdf 22 pages. Advance to Stage 6 referee simulation."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T16:44:37Z",
      "event": "Paper revised for referee round 1 \u2014 20 FIX items applied (P_eff derivation fixed, title/framing changed to common-factor slope, appendix consolidated, chi reinterpreted as super-additivity weight). 23pp PDF compiles cleanly."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T16:44:50Z",
      "event": "Incrementing referee_round to 2; launching round 2 referees on revised paper."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T17:30:00Z",
      "event": "Round 2 revision applied \u2014 11 FIX items addressed across all sections. Title retargeted to preference-reweighting content. Abstract/intro mechanism paragraphs rewritten to remove correlation-mechanism overclaim and present scalar reweighting honestly. Appendix B rewritten as stipulation (not derivation). Cardinal headlines reformulated as per-unit-of-chi slopes. Section 6.2 relabeled as ordinal-consistency test. \\Pefft{i} macro introduced to fix stray-comma rendering. PBOC modeling-choice sentence added. 7 LIMITS items promoted into expanded Section 7. Response letter written for 7 RESPONSE items (bifurcation declined per seeded-mode)."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T16:59:13Z",
      "event": "Paper revised round 2 \u2014 11 FIX items: new title (preference-reweighting slope), abstract rewritten, Appendix B stipulation language, ranking test relabeled, P_eff macro cleanup. 25pp PDF."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-24T16:59:20Z",
      "event": "Advancing to referee round 3 with revised paper."
    }
  ]
}