{
  "current_stage": "done",
  "problem_attempt": 1,
  "idea_round": 2,
  "theory_attempt": 1,
  "theory_version": 9,
  "referee_round": 6,
  "pivot_round": 0,
  "fix_empirics_rounds": 1,
  "bib_verify_round": 2,
  "pivot_resolved": null,
  "pivot_history": [],
  "status": "complete",
  "scores": {
    "gate_0": 78,
    "v3": 66,
    "v3_freeform": 70,
    "v7": 66,
    "v7_freeform": 72,
    "v8": 66,
    "v8_freeform": 73,
    "v9": 65,
    "v9_freeform": 73
  },
  "stage3a_theory_version": 8,
  "history": [
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
      "event": "Pipeline started. Status set to running."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
      "event": "Data inventory complete: WRDS, FRED, OpenAlex, EDGAR, Ken French, Chen-Zimmerman, flex-mining, mutual-funds, form-5500 all live. UF NaviGator + DeepInfra LLM tokens present."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T00:05:00Z",
      "event": "Stage 0a: broad literature scan complete (10 sub-domains, 8 candidate gaps)."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T00:06:00Z",
      "event": "Stage 0b: gap selected \u2014 G1 equilibrium theory of TDF rebalancing and asset prices; fallback G6 (passive P-A), G2 (AI disclosure)."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T00:14:00Z",
      "event": "Stage 0c: deep gap-scout complete. Verdict PARTIALLY OPEN; closest competitor Kimball-Shapiro-Shumway-Zhang (2020, JFE)."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T00:15:00Z",
      "event": "Stage 0d: problem_statement.md written \u2014 TDF-institutional primitives, cross-sectional + time-series predictions required, framework deliberately unspecified."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T00:15:00Z",
      "event": "Gate 0: problem viability PASSED (78/100). Advancing to Stage 1."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T00:25:00Z",
      "event": "Stage 1 round 1: 5 idea sketches generated (inelastic arbitrage; cross-sectional basket; OLG cohort; welfare staggering; non-learners/PEAD)."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T00:35:00Z",
      "event": "Stage 1 round 2: merged sketch (Sketch 6) \u2014 kappa-threshold theorem + rank-M basket covariance theorem with (alpha/(1-alpha))^2 scaling."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T00:50:00Z",
      "event": "Gate 1b novelty check: NOVEL (both claims; closest competitors Kimball et al. 2020 and Basak-Pavlova 2013)."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T00:55:00Z",
      "event": "Gate 1c idea prototype: TRACTABLE, SURPRISING. kappa* formula corrected; sign convention flipped; COVID-reconciliation tension flagged for Stage 2."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
      "event": "Stage 1 complete. Advancing to Stage 2 with corrected formula and explicit instruction to address COVID reconciliation honestly."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T01:15:00Z",
      "event": "Stage 2 theory_draft_v1 written. Theorem 1 three-regime with corrected formula kappa*=(1-alpha)*gamma*sigma_u^2/[eta*alpha*s-(1-alpha)]; Theorem 2 rank-M basket covariance confirmed. COVID reconciled: current alpha in always-dampening regime; threshold regime activates at alpha*=1/(1+eta*s)."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T01:30:00Z",
      "event": "Gate 2 math audit v1: FAIL (4 Critical + 5 Serious). V_tot invented; Cor 2a iff false; alphabar incoherent; prototype-equivalence claim false."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T01:50:00Z",
      "event": "Gate 2 math audit v2: FAIL (1 new Critical in Prop 4 E[RV] derivation). 11 of 12 v1 issues fixed; only algebra bug left. Progress positive."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T02:05:00Z",
      "event": "Gate 2 structured math audit v3: PASS (2 minors fixed in place)."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T02:10:00Z",
      "event": "Gate 2 freeform audit v1: PASS. Moderate framing concerns on lambda=kappa, Thm 3 linear/quadratic emphasis, alpha*=0.9994 framing; deferred to self-attack."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T02:20:00Z",
      "event": "Gate 3 novelty check v3: NOVEL. Closest competitors Basak-Pavlova 2013 (Thm 3) and Kimball et al. 2020 (Thm 1); both cleanly differentiated."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T02:35:00Z",
      "event": "Stage 3a exploration complete. Verdict: HOLDS on mathematics, MARGINAL/FRAGILE on economic magnitudes. alpha*=0.9994 and kappa*=-0.0113 verified to 4+ sig figs. Two quantitative fixes applied to draft: Thm 3 magnitude (~10^-10 not 10^-5), P3 growth (300x not 20x). Sign-direction NE1 already fixed."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T02:55:00Z",
      "event": "Stage 3 implications complete. Tags: 1 SUPPORTED (I1 Parker-Sun), 5 NOVEL (I2-I6). No puzzle-candidates. Advancing to Stage 3b empirical."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
      "event": "Empirics round 2 (FoF fix) complete. AAPL 2020Q4 exposure 0.04B -> 23.1B (500x correction verified by auditor). I2 headline t=+7.66 on 6.5M pairs; I5 now clean with HKM (t=-3.47 post)."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T04:05:00Z",
      "event": "Empirics audit v2: PASS. I4 panel wrong-sign judged mechanical FoF-passthrough, not theory contradiction. One prose fix to I5 interpretation deferred to Stage 5."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T04:05:00Z",
      "event": "Puzzle-triage entry check: NONE. No contradictions. Advancing to Stage 4 self-attack."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T04:30:00Z",
      "event": "Gate 4: structured 66, freeform 70, both REVISE. Branch-manager CONTINUE with structural reframe (elevate I5, demote Thm 2, fix 8 FIX items)."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
      "event": "Gate 2 math audit v4: FAIL (2 Critical: \u00a75.6 gen-1 FOC factor-of-2; \u00a75.7 Phi power of theta_u; 1 Serious: Lemma 4 extension needs W^T W=I_M; 1 minor cross-partial hand-wave). Fixes well-specified."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T05:20:00Z",
      "event": "Gate 2 math audit v5: FAIL. 2 Critical unfixed (\u00a75.6 symmetry imposition still gives 2kappa, not kappa; \u00a74.6.1 A5 with stated A2 forces k_m=1 making extension vacuous) + 1 Serious Prop 6 scope bug. Fixes specified."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T05:50:00Z",
      "event": "Gate 2 math audit v6: PASS. Freeform v2 PASS with 2 framing concerns. Novelty v6 NOVEL. Stage 3a HOLDS."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
      "event": "Gate 2 math audit v7: PASS. v7 reverts microfoundation (uses Prop 6 robustness instead), keeps Lemma 4 (A2) and Prop 6 scope fix. I5 cross-partial sign restored negative; confirms empirical t=-3.47."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T06:05:00Z",
      "event": "Re-scoring v7 at Gate 4 \u2014 addresses 8 FIX items from v3 triage."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-22T06:20:00Z",
      "event": "Gate 4 v7: 66/72 REVISE. Branch-manager: RESTRUCTURE + EXTENSION with S4 welfare theorem. v8 = lead with I5 + add \u00a710 welfare/staggering + monotonicity for Lemma 4 + I1 Form-5500 placebo."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z",
      "event": "v8 math audit PASS (1 cosmetic sign in Cor 3a fixed); novelty all 4 new items NOVEL; exploration HOLDS qualitatively (645x dollar calibration error in \u00a710.6 fixed in place \u2014 scaling claim robust, dollar magnitudes honestly bounded). I7 added to implications.md."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T07:30:00Z",
      "event": "Gate 4 v8: structured 66 (plateau 3rd \u0394=0), freeform 73 (+1). Branch-manager: EXTEND with (a) endogenize welfare cost + (d) execute I7 Herfindahl + (\u03bb-pinning). Extension playbook mandated."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T08:30:00Z",
      "event": "Gate 4 v9: structured 65, freeform 73. Branch-manager Option C HYBRID: execute I1 IV (empirical) + advance to Stage 5 paper-writing in parallel."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T14:30:00Z",
      "event": "Stage 6 round 1: both referees Major Revision/R&R. Convergent top concerns: 9-OOM magnitude gap (I5), I1 IV null, welfare triviality, conditional/unconditional wording. Freeform recommends pivoting around basket-covariance + flex-mining placement."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T14:55:00Z",
      "event": "Paper revision round 1 complete. All 17 [FIX] items addressed. Key fixes: Prop 3.3 restricted to calibrated rectangle; \u00a74.7.1 dimensional reconciliation closes ~6.8 of 9 OOMs; I1/IV null reframed as honest cross-sectional + placebo differential. Draft 40pp."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T15:45:00Z",
      "event": "Round 2 revision complete. I5 single-regression triple-diff: t=-5.57 (2-way), -10.16 (event). \u03bb=\u03ba demoted + \u03bd calibrated from literature. 2-OOM gap narrowed to pure sign test. 44pp compile."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T16:30:00Z",
      "event": "Round 3 revision complete. 12 FIX items applied: lambda=kappa joint-test framing, 2-OOM demoted to paragraph, novelty distinction strengthened, Prop 3 pre-news proof filled, split-sample I2 flagged, Cor 4 units specified. 45pp compile."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T17:15:00Z",
      "event": "Round 4 structural revision: 45\u219239 pages. Reduced-form framing for I5; Thm 1 demoted to consistency check; dim reconciliation deleted; welfare compressed to 1 page; superlinear scaling qualified. Closes structural concerns 1,2,3."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T17:55:00Z",
      "event": "Round 5 revision: 3 new/escalated FIX items addressed: I2 ex-ante count rationale via Lemma 4b; IV exclusion QDIA-demographics mechanism; unit-mismatch back-of-envelope chain (residual 2-4 OOM honest). 40pp."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T18:40:00Z",
      "event": "Stage 6 declared practically converged at round 6. 6 rounds referee iteration: both converge on Major Rev at top-3, R&R-grade at RFS/JFQA/Management Science. Structural concerns (scalar vs N-asset identification, 2-4 OOM residual, I3 marginal Vuong) are architectural not prose-fixable. Further rounds would yield new but marginal FIX items at cost of diminishing returns. Per never-abandon rule advancing to Stage 7 style check."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
      "event": "Stage 7 style complete: ~80 mechanical edits (royal we\u2192I throughout, em-dashes, naked this). 16 judgment flags for self-description descriptors left as-is. 40pp clean compile."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T19:15:00Z",
      "event": "Stage 8 bib verify complete: 34 VERIFIED, 9 RESOLVED, 0 fabrications, 1 fix applied (parker2025household corrected authors Allison Cole + Duncan Simester via OpenAlex check). 40pp final PDF."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-23T19:15:00Z",
      "event": "PIPELINE COMPLETE."
    }
  ]
}