{
  "current_stage": "stage_6_revision",
  "problem_attempt": 1,
  "idea_round": 1,
  "theory_attempt": 2,
  "revision_round": 4,
  "referee_round": 3,
  "status": "running",
  "scores": {
    "v4": 0,
    "v5_indicative": 58
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-05T12:39:00Z",
      "event": "Pipeline started"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-05T12:50:52Z",
      "event": "Stage 0 \u2014 anomaly persistence problem identified"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-05T13:03:30Z",
      "event": "Stage 1 \u2014 5 ideas generated, Idea 1 (Bayesian) selected"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-05T14:39:38Z",
      "event": "Bayesian model failed at calibration (confounding 0.02%)"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-05T14:55:55Z",
      "event": "Pivoted to Idea 2 (Capacity/Congestion) \u2014 HOLDS at calibration"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-05T15:52:53Z",
      "event": "Characterization theorem added, all audits done"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-05T16:05:00Z",
      "event": "Paper written \u2014 26 pages, compiles cleanly"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-05T16:13:46Z",
      "event": "Referee: MAJOR REVISION. Key: add empirics, elevate sqrt-impact, address surprise."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-05T16:30:00Z",
      "event": "Late discovery: Berk-Green (2004 JPE) has identical mechanism in mutual funds (alpha independent of skill in equilibrium). Must engage prominently."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-05T17:23:33Z",
      "event": "Stage 3e: Empirical analysis complete \u2014 154 CZ anomalies, partial support (non-monotonicity strong, alpha-independence rejected in favor of concave impact)"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-05T17:23:33Z",
      "event": "Paper revised: Berk-Green engagement, empirical section, figures, referee comments MC1-MC6 + minor addressed"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-05T17:36:41Z",
      "event": "Empirics audit: FAIL \u2014 Test 2 survival rate regression mechanical. Fixed: replaced with alpha compression test (H0: b=1, t=-9.3). Rewrote assessment honestly."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-05T17:36:41Z",
      "event": "Stage 6 round 2: referee simulation launched"
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-05T17:44:59Z",
      "event": "Referee round 2: Major Revision. New issues addressed: sqrt+risk aversion (approx alpha-indep restored), pub-year controls (no change), EIV correction (strengthens rejection), Dong et al. engagement, economic content of characterization."
    },
    {
      "timestamp": "2026-04-05T17:55:14Z",
      "event": "Referee round 3 addressed: characterization-Remark5 tension resolved, EIV headline (0.29-0.41), overfitting decomposition, half-life test implemented (alpha not predicting speed: t=-1.59, consistent with theory)"
    }
  ],
  "next_steps": [
    "Re-submit to referee (Stage 6 round 3)",
    "If Minor/Accept: proceed to Stage 7 (style check)"
  ]
}